Predictability
Extended Metrics for Engineering Managers
ratio
Unique to Projcity
Tracks delivery reliability by comparing completed work to work started.
💡 Like a weather forecast accuracy score, predictability tells you how reliable your team's estimates and commitments are over time.
What It Measures
Tracks delivery reliability by comparing completed work to work started.
Why It Matters
Confirming whether work started is finishing on schedule
Measuring follow-through on commitments
How It's Calculated
Divides completed tickets by tasks moved to In Progress, returning 0 when no tasks were started.
tickets ÷ task_in_progress (returns 0 when task_in_progress = 0)Concrete Example
If your team started 20 tasks this sprint but only completed 12, your predictability score is 0.60, meaning you finish 60% of what you commit to.
What Does a Healthy Score Look Like?
Higher is better, 1.0 means everything started gets finished.
Healthy
Over 0.80 (finishing 80%+ of started work)
Watch Out
0.60–0.80
Needs Attention
Under 0.60, significant carry-over and missed commitments
What Moves This Metric?
Goes up when…
Better sprint planning with realistic capacity estimates
Smaller tasks that are more likely to complete within a sprint
Fewer unplanned interruptions consuming committed capacity
Goes down when…
Overcommitting in sprint planning due to optimistic estimates
Unplanned incidents or reactive work consuming the sprint
Dependencies on other teams or external systems causing delays
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